Introduction by ebook's author:
The first question in trading is always when to enter the market. Is it right to buy into falling prices or better to wait for them to stabilize? Is it necessary to wait a little longer and buy only the first move up after a fall? Should one chase rising prices or even wait for a base after a rise? Is waiting even longer for a restart of the trend after a pause the right thing to do?
The answer is: It depends, but not on the situation, as you might have thought now. Instead, it depends on the trading system you use, which should be clearly aligned to one or the other style. In other words, one can make money in the markets with cyclical and anticyclical systems. Just don’t try to mix one method with the other, unless you aim to be a trading genius.
The quoTrader system is completely cyclical. It trades at the current high, for short term entry situations and also for longer terms. This has two advantages.
For one, the probabilities are skewed to the trader’s favor. The high indicates a running trend, there is pressure that drives the price further and makes an entry easier. Moreover, there is a trend at all, which means prices are moving in the right direction. The cyclical method is the faster way to become rich. Anticyclical traders are more investors. They generally need a long life.
The longer trend and fundamentals do matter for a sound system. Stocks could be traded solely on a day trading basis, but that means giving up most of the possible gain. The real money is made by holding when things go well and riding a trend for many month that at its best finally overshoots by a wide margin. And this is where fundamentals come in. Like prices, which run away once they have gained momentum, revenues and earnings of companies that rise do this often with a remarkable constancy. We have a growth stock. It pays off to take rising revenues into account. Over all concentration on such stocks will yield better results even if the targeted time horizon of holding periods is much shorter.
One of the beauties of stocks is that they are essentially options but without the expiration date. At least this is true for stocks on the move. It is possible that they multiply their value by a large factor, and yet, they can’t go below zero. This alone is highly interesting, because it offers the possibility of a random trading system, just driven by stronger moves upwards than downwards. Of course this effect only becomes noticeable if you hold a stock for a longer time. Day traders go away empty handed.
Another fine thing about stocks is that there are stock markets, by which I mean that there are thousands of possible trading candidates. Compare that to Forex or futures. Together with ETFs, some of them being short-instruments and others matching foreign markets or commodities, there is always something to pick. Without the need to go short you can still enjoy the option-characteristic of stocks.
A trading system must be self-consistent. All parts of the system must fit together. Something that doesn’t fit, while it may be the right thing for another system, is like… Read more…
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