Introduction by ebook's author:
If you’ve been reading my blog for any length of time, you’ll know that I am a massive fan of using trainer patterns to make betting decisions. What I’m about to share with you has literally changed the way I bet, and I think it may do the same for you too.
I’ve been interested in horse racing for over twenty years (more than half my life!), and – obviously – I’ve been betting on it for as long. When I started out, I didn’t really have any idea which information was important and which was not.
I was like every other newbie, who used the string of numbers to the left of a horse’s name to make my betting decisions. It worked for me sometimes, but overall there’s little doubt that I was losing money.
As time passed, I was convinced that it was possible to make money from betting horses, and that in order to do so, I’d need to find key information that wasn’t available to all punters.
It was the better part of fifteen years before I finally latched on to the core element of form that has been the backbone of my betting ever since.
In a nutshell, I figured out that the information that wasn’t on the racing page was more important than the information that was. That’s because this information was far less widely available.
When I’d started out, I was using the most obvious, most widely available ‘form guide’ there is. Those numbers next to a horse’s name told anyone who wanted a bet precisely where the horse had finished in recent runs. And that can be useful, for sure.
- What distance the horse raced over – How many horses were in the race – What class of race it was – What the going was – What type of race it was – Whether the horse met any trouble in running – And so on, and so on, and so on…
So yes, I was able to find a few winners. But the percentage of winners and the money I won was nowhere near enough to pay for the losers. And I was losing quite a bit in those early years.
But I look back on that as my apprenticeship now. Whilst I’m still learning – and will continue to learn for as long as I bet on horses – the one aspect of racing that I KNOW makes more money than any other is trainer profiling.
Trainers are creatures of habit, and their job is to hone the horses in their care to peak fitness, and to place them into races which will produce optimum performance.
The answer to the second question is a little easier than the first. We should bet horses that fit into the trainer profiles when the odds support it. Specifically, if we know that our man (or woman) wins a certain type of race a certain amount of the time, then we can know what ‘value odds’ are.
Suppose I know that the fictional trainer, Jane Bloggs, wins with 10% of her runners. I also know that she happens to target sprint handicaps, in which she has a much more attractive 22% (or two from every nine) strike rate of winners.
From delving more deeply into… Read more…
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